Trading Expectancy Calculator
Combine win rate, average win, average loss and round-trip costs to calculate expected profit per trade and the break-even win rate.
Your trading sample
Use the same currency for every amount. Changing currency only changes formatting.
Use comparable completed trades. This two-outcome model assumes every trade is a win or a loss before costs; it does not include flat trades. Costs cover entry and exit together. If your averages already include costs, enter 0 for costs.
Net expectancy per trade
$15.00- Before costs
- $20.00
- Break-even win rate
- 35%
- Average win / average loss
- 2
- Expected total
- $1,500.00
- Total costs
- $500.00
Win rate and average outcomes stay constant. The total is expectancy multiplied by the number of trades, without compounding. It is not a forecast, drawdown estimate or probability of making money. Small or selected samples may misrepresent a strategy.
What if your win rate changes?
| Win rate | Net per trade |
|---|---|
| 0% | -$105.00 |
| 30% | -$15.00 |
| 40% | $15.00 |
| 50% | $45.00 |
| 100% | $195.00 |
Cost ceiling at break-even: $20.00
The gross expectancy is the maximum average cost that preserves break-even. A negative value means the model loses even with zero costs.
Read the average, not a promise
Win rate and average outcomes stay constant. The total is expectancy multiplied by the number of trades, without compounding. It is not a forecast, drawdown estimate or probability of making money. Small or selected samples may misrepresent a strategy.
At 40% wins, an average win of 200, average loss of 100 and cost of 5, each trade has a gross expectation of 20 and a net expectation of 15. Across 100 comparable trades the expected total is 1,500, with 500 in costs. Break-even is 35%. All amounts use the same currency.
Formula reference: CME GroupCan a strategy win less than half its trades and still have positive expectancy?
Yes. Larger average wins can outweigh more frequent losses. Costs reduce that advantage.
Should I use planned targets or actual results?
Use actual completed trades from a comparable strategy and position size. Planned targets are assumptions; they are not evidence of achieved average wins.
Is this expectancy in R?
No. This page uses money amounts. Average loss is not necessarily the initial risk per trade, so the result is not labeled as R.